Consumer Prices Rise 0.4 Percent in October, Above Forecasts
Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, above the 0.3 percent forecast, with core prices up 0.3 percent, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.
October CPI inflation report showed consumer prices rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10, slowing from a 0.6 percent increase in September but exceeding forecasts for a 0.3 percent gain. Core consumer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3 percent for a third consecutive month, also above the 0.2 percent forecast. Shelter rose 0.3 percent and alone accounted for more than 30 percent of the monthly increase, while food rose 0.5 percent and energy rose 0.7 percent, with gasoline up 1.0 percent. Before seasonal adjustment, the index rose 0.2 percent to 337.511, on a base where 1982 to 1984 equals 100.
Unlike most monthly releases, the October report did not include an overall annual inflation rate. The 2025 government shutdown prevented the bureau from collecting October 2025 price data, leaving it unable to calculate year-over-year changes for most categories. The latest available headline annual rate was 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent in August, with a core rate of 2.6 percent, and those remain the latest official annual figures. Some analysts estimated the missing October yearly rate at roughly 3.8 percent for the headline index and 2.7 percent for core, but those are estimates, not official figures, and the bureau will publish a yearly rate again with the November report on December 10.
October CPI inflation report and pay
The hotter-than-expected monthly figures matter for households and for interest rates. Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from September to October, seasonally adjusted, meaning pay did not gain ground against prices in the month. The report was the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve December 8 to 9 meeting, and rate futures continued to price a high chance of an increase in December after the release. For shoppers, the details were familiar: shelter, food, and energy all rose, and the cost of everyday living continued to climb faster than the central bank 2 percent goal. The next report, covering November, is scheduled for December 10, and it will restore the yearly comparison that was missing this month.
Source: SHRM
