Small Business Optimism Holds Steady as Uncertainty Falls

Small business optimism October held almost steady, with the National Federation of Independent Business reporting on November 10 that its Small Business Optimism Index was 97.8 in October, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0. The survey, conducted in October among small business owners across the United States, has been collected monthly since 1986 and is a leading gauge of the health of the small business economy. Beneath the steady headline, the details were mixed: four of the ten subcomponents improved, five deteriorated, and one was unchanged. The more interesting move was in uncertainty, which fell six points to 84, the lowest level since December 2025, suggesting owners felt clearer about the months ahead even if they were not more upbeat overall.

Hiring plans stayed firm. A net 18 percent of owners planned to create jobs, up one point from September, while 56 percent said they were actively hiring or trying to hire, and 86 percent of those found few or no qualified applicants. The share of firms with unfilled positions climbed to 36 percent from 32 percent. Labour quality and availability remained the top reported problem for a fourth straight month, cited by 25 percent of owners, down one point, while taxes rose to become the second top issue, cited by 21 percent, the highest level since May 2021. A net 8 percent of owners expected better business conditions over the next six months, up two points, and the share saying now is a good time to expand climbed four points to 11 percent.

Small business optimism October and the hiring squeeze

The survey describes a Main Street economy that is steady rather than surging, with owners navigating enduring challenges while finding some encouraging developments, in the words of NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. The hiring squeeze remains the central problem: many small firms want to add staff but cannot find qualified people, and that limits how fast they can grow, serve customers, or take on new work. Taxes as a rising concern adds another pressure, especially for firms with thin margins. The fall in uncertainty is the hopeful note, since clearer expectations make it easier to plan hiring, investment, and pricing. The November survey, due on the second Tuesday of December, will show whether uncertainty keeps falling and whether the tax worry fades or grows.

Source: NFIB